The swiftly escalating dispute between Pakistan and India threatens the future of the war on terrorism and could result in the nightmare of nuclear war. What are these two nuclear-armed neighbors fighting over and how could their dispute threaten the United States?
Kashmir: Paradise Lost
The long-disputed territory of Kashmir (map) spans the northern border between Pakistan (map) and India (map) in a valley of the Himalayan Mountains. Today, loosely defined regions of Kashmir are controlled by Pakistan, India and China, all of which have nuclear arsenals.
When India and Pakistan won independence from Britain in 1947, Kashmir was given the choice of being governed by either country. While Maharaja, Hari Singh, then provincial leader of Kashmir preferred independence, he allowed the key powers of government to be given to India in return for military protection.
Since then, India and Pakistan have fought two wars over Kashmir: one in 1947-1948, the latest in 1965. The next may come soon, unless diplomatic efforts spearheaded by the U.S. succeed.
Tensions reached a peak on Dec. 13, when suicide gunmen staged a bloody surprise attack on the Indian Parliament. India accused Pakistan of backing the attacks. Pakistan denied the charges.
On Jan. 1, 2002, India and Pakistan renewed an agreement not to attack each other's nuclear facilities. While viewed as a step back from war, the countries had earlier reduced diplomatic relations and banned most travel across their common border. Massive troop buildups along the border continue to be spiked by regular exchanges of small arms and mortar fire.
Along with India and Pakistan vying for control of the valley, a growing list of militant Kashmiri separatist groups have sprung up since the early 1990s. "Militant" has become the diplomatic term for "terrorist," while the militants call themselves "freedom fighters."
Under the Indian Independence Act of 1947, India still retains official control of Kashmir and claims to keep some 125,000 military troops there. Independent defense observers say the actual figure is far higher.
Militant Groups in Kashmir
The three largest militant factions in Kashmir are: Hizbul Mujahideen; Lashkar-e-Toyeba; and Harkat-ul-Mujahideen. Within each faction, are sub-groups fighting either for Pakistani control or Kashmiri independence. The only thing all members of all three groups appear to agree on is the total ouster of India from the valley.
India claims that all three factions maintain training and operational bases in Pakistan and receive moral and political support and protection from the Pakistani government. Pakistan President Perez Musharraf recently purged several members of the powerful Pakistani intelligence agency he believed to be secretly supporting Kashmiri militants.
India further claims Kashmiri militant factions receive weapons and ammunition directly from Pakistan, a claim Musharraf strongly denies.
To further complicate matters, hundreds of al Qaeda and Taliban fighters who fled Afghanistan are believed to have entered Kashmir.
An ancient Mogul emperor once declared of Kashmir, "If there is paradise anywhere on earth, it is here, it is here, it is here." Unfortunately, the modern Kashmir appears to be a paradise only for violence.
Nuclear Arsenals
Shortly after China's first nuclear tests in the early 1960's, India began its own nuclear arms development program culminating with the detonation of the "Smiling Buddha" test device in 1974. By the late 1970s, Pakistan's nuclear arms development program was well under way.
While India's weapons technology is currently viewed as being more advanced than that of its rival, Pakistan is now reported to be getting extensive technical assistance from its much more nuclear-experienced ally, China.
U.S. intelligence experts believe Pakistan now has about 30 nuclear-tipped missiles with a range of around 300km.
Threat to the U.S.
A war -- nuclear or not -- between two of our allies in the war on terror would certainly cripple if not destroy the tenuous alliance of Middle Eastern countries forged by U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell.
On Dec. 30, Sen. Bob Graham (D-Florida), chairman of the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee called the India-Pakistan conflict "one of the most dangerous situations on the globe." Appearing on CNN's "Late Edition," Graham warned, "Americans should be gravely concerned."
Previous wars between India and Pakistan over control of Kashmir were waged before either country had nuclear arms. "We have allowed the situation in Kashmir to fester for over half a century," said Sen. Graham. "We should have and we need today to apply more diplomatic effort to resolve that issue."
At the end of the Gulf War, India's then Chief of Staff was asked by reporters what he had learned from observing the conflict in Iraq. "Don't fight the Americans without nuclear weapons," he replied.
Source: http://usgovinfo.about.com/library/weekly/aa010202.htm
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